Tricolor is good for Babiš and bad for liberals

The launch yesterday of Václav Klaus Jr.'s new nationalist party, Tricolor, comes at a bad time for the oligarchs, lobbyists, civic groups and media that want to run Andrej Babiš out of politics. Tricolor adds a new element of uncertainty that could damage the interests of those who align themselves on the "liberal" side of politics. Sure, Klaus Jr. will take some votes away from his "illiberal" rivals (ANO, SPD, KSČM, ČSSD), but that side of the spectrum already has a stable majority. In the latest Kantar CZ poll for ČT, ANO fell by 2.5 percentage points, to 27.5%, but ANO-SPD-KSČM-ČSSD lost only half a point, to 50.5%. The liberals who would make it into Parliament fell from 41.0% to 37.0%. Whether Tricolor takes 3%, 5% or 11% of the overall vote isn't the main issue. The issue is how many of the votes will be at the expense of the liberals. Even if Klaus passed the 5% mark but took only 2 points away from ODS and its allies, it would be 2 points that shored up Babiš's flank.