Spolu inches toward 11%

The new Median poll for the 2025 parliamentary elections is the first major survey that at least partially takes into account the regional elections and removal by PM Petr Fiala of Pirates Chair Ivan Bartoš as development ministry. It's not a good sign for ODS that it lost more voter support during the month of Sept. than the Pirates, both in terms of percentage points and percent. ODS fell from 13.0% in Median's survey in Aug. to 11.5% in Sept., while the Pirates dropped from 9.5% to 8.5%. Even more important for Fiala's future is the standing of the three parties in the Spolu coalition (ODS, TOP 09, KDU-ČSL). They won the parliamentary elections in 2021 with 27.8% of the vote. The Median poll one year later, in Sept. 2022, gave the three Spolu parties a combined 24.5% rating. By Sept. 2023 it had fallen to 22.5%, and now it's down again to 18.0%. That's an average annual decline of 3.3 percentage points. At this rate the Spolu parties can statistically expect an outcome in next year's election of 14.7%. That's dangerously close to the 11% threshold, even without taking into account whatever mischief Miroslav Kalousek might cause.