Cold peace

When Russian started rattling its sabres about the missile-defense sites planned for Poland and the CR, commentators said it was internal politics. As the threats rise - "we'll pull out of arms treaties; we'll point our missiles at you" - some people still link them to next year's Russian elections, but many analysts see a graver situation: An energized Russia is flexing its muscles in an effort to reclaim the sphere of influence it lost under a weak Boris Yeltsin. In this scenario, the threats and "asymmetric retaliation" are unlikely to subside after the Russian elections, esp. if hawk Sergei Ivanov succeeds Putin or, as Izvestia suggested yesterday, ex-President Putin joins Russia's Security Council or becomes the prime minister. There might not be another cold war, one analyst said, but a cold peace is emerging. Poland and the CR should be prepared to be in the middle of it for years to come.