Greek prophecies

15.02.2010 - EB

Economic forecasts are all Greek to ex-Finance Minister Miroslav Kalousek. The Czech economy contracted by a preliminary 4.3% last year, meaning that Kalousek's initial prediction of +4.8% growth was off by a Hellenic 9.1 percentage points. In excusing this, he told Právo that no one in the CR expected such a sharp decline last year. Nor, he said, does anyone know 100% how things will go from here. Of course not, but it's almost certain that the negative trend will continue - with perhaps some misleading blips here or there - unless drastic action is taken. This means sharply cutting government spending, lowering taxes (not raising them), implementing selective protectionism in Europe, abolishing the costliest environmental measures, attacking corruption with some high-visibility arrests (ČEZ would be a good place to start), and talking to creditors about partial debt forgiveness. There is no will for any of this, so instead of hoping for a "W" recovery, we should prepare for a long y-shaped slide backward in time.

Glossary of difficult words

prophecy - prediction, forecast;

it's (all) Greek to me - "I can't understand it at all";

to contract - to decrease in size, number or range;

Hellenic - Greek, Greek-like (Greece has had notoriously bad forecasts, which contributed to its current debt crisis);

blip - an unexpected, minor, and typically temporary deviation from a general trend;

high-visibility (arrest) - calculated to attract strong attention and to send a message;

debt forgiveness - debt relief; when a creditor agrees to accept less than the total amount owed as full satisfaction of the loan.



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